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AI Analysis:
A gap between President Joe Biden and Democratic Senate candidates is now a reality, as polls show. This development has sparked concerns among Democratic operatives and pollsters about the potential impact on down-ballot races.
One expert, Drutman, warns that if Democrats stick with Biden after all this, I would expect Democratic voter enthusiasm to plummet. Another Democratic pollster, who requested anonymity, expressed concern about the widening gap between Biden's performance and that of Democratic Senate candidates in several swing states. The pollster noted that these candidates are clinging to small leads while Biden has fallen substantially behind Trump.
This dynamic is reminiscent of 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost Missouri by a wide margin despite Democratic Senate candidate Jason Kander running ahead of her. Kander believes it's impossible for any Senate candidate to completely escape the gravitational pull of the presidential contest. He suggests that the key to outrunning the presidential ticket is to convey authenticity and independence.
However, Kander also cautions against asking down-ballot candidates to dismiss voter concerns about Biden's age without showing genuine roots in their state's values and experiences. This could lead to a credibility issue similar to what happened during the 2018 midterm elections when Trump required many candidates to say that the election was rigged.
Other experts note that voters have increasingly pruned mismatched Senate candidates, especially in presidential years. In 2020, for instance, all 34 Senate races went the same way as the presidential result in their state, with only one exception (Collins). The failure of Democratic attempts to capture six GOP-held Senate seats in Republican-leaning states in that year further underscores this trend.
Republican consultant Jesse Hunt believes that Republicans can win even if Democratic candidates outspend them or maintain relatively favorable personal images. As long as everything is kept close, he says, the sheer atmospherics of the presidential race will tip the result.
In conclusion, while many factors contribute to the outcome of Senate races, it's clear that a gap between Biden and Democratic Senate candidates poses significant risks for Democrats. The party must carefully consider its strategy and messaging to ensure that these candidates can still win despite being linked to a struggling presidential candidate.
AI analysis made using llama3 running locally.
Original Article:
The stakes for Democrats in their extraordinary public schism over whether President Joe Biden should withdraw from the 2024 presidential race extend far beyond the White House. A decisive loss at the top of the ticket could cost Democrats control of the US Senate for the remainder of this decade and cement Republican dominance of the Supreme Court for a generation.... [Read More]
Published: 2024-07-09T04:00:43